Gold Market Commentary Q4

Gold prices are rarely a reliable indicator of an impending recession. Because rates, inflation, FX, and other macroeconomic factors are co-determined with these prices, the performance of gold is reactive, not predictive. Moreover, negative gold performances do not contrast with those preceding significant contractions in US growth.


The LBMA has launched the first-ever Responsible Sourcing Report for gold. This report is designed to raise transparency in the gold industry and shed light on gold traceability. It aims to provide investors with the necessary information to make the best investment decisions. It consists of a report that reviews the performance of refiners and lists the country where the gold was produced.

LBMA analysts predict that gold prices will continue to face pressure from the strong US dollar, rising interest rates, and quantitative easing programs. They also point to a weak oil price and reduced demand from Asian countries for a hedge against inflation. However, despite these negative factors, the gold price will likely be supported by strong retail demand in China and India. Further, the central banks are expected to provide limited support.


A number of analysts and top gold IRA companies are downplaying the prospects for gold prices this year. The Sumitomo Corporation, for example, says that the Fed is not likely to raise interest rates again this year, and that volatility is likely to rise. In their quarterly commentary for the fourth quarter, they give a more conservative outlook on gold prices for the year ahead. Meanwhile, Bank of America Merrill Lynch has cut its price forecast for gold for 2018 and 2019, citing improved economic conditions and rising nominal rates in the U.S.

Meanwhile, Citibank has updated its gold price forecast, with long-term forecasts at US$ 1,200 per troy ounce and six-month forecast at US$ 1,525. an increase of 4.6% from January and 11.5% from average prices in 2020. According to the LBMA, factors that influenced gold prices in recent years include declining interest rates in the United States, the weakening US dollar, and the COVID-19 pandemic.

LBMA gold price

The LBMA Gold Price is used by investors worldwide to gauge the price of gold. The LBMA Gold Price is based on auctions held twice daily by the ICE Benchmark Administration, a subsidiary of the Intercontinental Exchange. Because the LBMA is regulated, the methodology behind the LBMA Gold Price should be transparent.

This price is used for the valuation of gold-backed ETFs, ISDA swaps, mining contracts, and refining contracts. The LBMA Gold Price is the most widely used gold benchmark. Its value is based on the global gold supply and demand.

LBMA gold price PM 1971 – 2001

The London Bullion Market Association (LBMA) is a global gold market and the largest spot gold market in the world. The market was first opened in 1919 after the prohibition period during the First World War. It was then closed from 1939 to 1945 during the Second World War. Since 1968, LBMA gold prices have been quoted in both GBP and USD, with the trade unit being one ounce (31.1 grams). The most important data on gold prices is available at the afternoon fixing prices, and are published by the LBMA. The data on the LBMA’s website go back to January 1978.

The LBMA Gold Price PM (LBMA Gold Price) is a price index that tracks gold prices. It also provides an indicator for the performance of gold relative to other assets such as stocks and bonds. The gold price is a function of real rates, which are calculated by adding the opportunity cost and risk to the price of the asset.

GFMS gold price PM 1971 – 2001

The GFMS gold price PM is the price of gold in grams per day, and is published by the Compagnie Parisienne de Reescompte, the largest gold merchant in France. Since 2004, the company has organized daily gold price fixings. For the 1970s and 1980s, the Compagnie Parisienne de REESCOMPTE has collected data from the Bank of France archives.

Central bank gold buying

According to a WGC survey of 57 central banks, 25 percent expect to increase their gold reserves over the next 12 months, while 21 percent confirmed their plans to do so. The primary driver for these planned purchases is concern about a global financial crisis. However, other factors such as increased economic risks in reserve currency economies and anticipated changes in the international monetary system also play a significant role.

A large portion of the gold purchased by central banks is used as a hedge against inflation. Inflation is defined as a rise in the price of a basket of goods. In countries with high inflation, central banks need to have investments that are not tied to the dollar.